With global demand for hydrogen projected to rise sevenfold by 2050, analysis from the Africa Green Hydrogen Alliance – and analytical support from McKinsey – quantifies opportunities for Alliance members Egypt, Kenya, Mauritania, Morocco, Namibia, and South Africa.

By 2050, green hydrogen could increase the GDP of the six countries by $126bn, which is equivalent to 12% of these countries’ current GDP – an encouraging forecast, as COP27 focuses on the key role of energy in climate change in ‘Energy Day’.

Potentially all six countries could meet the entirety of their own demand for green hydrogen and related-products needed for heavy industry and segments of transport, estimated at 10-18Mt by 2050. This would include uses such as the use of green hydrogen as a replacement fuel for coal in steel making, or the production of green ammonia to make fertiliser.

If the production potential of these six countries is achieved, it could help abate around 6.5GT of cumulative carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions globally by 2050, roughly equivalent to the combined CO2 emissions in the United States and Europe in 2021.

High potential in wind and solar energy means that these countries could produce green hydrogen and related products such as ammonia in a competitive fashion, both meeting domestic demand for hard to abate applications like heavy industry and off-road transport, in addition to growing market exports.

European Union, Japan, and South Korea are identified as priority export markets – reflecting existing infrastructure and high level of demand from existing manufacturing centres not able to fulfil all their clean hydrogen needs – although investment of $450-$900bn will be needed between now and 2050.

UN Climate Change High-Level Champion Nigel Topping said the study confirms that Africa stands to become a leader in the global green hydrogen arena.

He said, “By investing in green hydrogen, the frontrunner countries in the Africa Green Hydrogen Alliance can create millions of jobs and unlock a roaring economic engine. It’s key that the deployment of green hydrogen aims to maximise benefits to local communities and spur the creation of new green industries such as green steel and fertiliser.

“For this the private sector and financing community should step up and unlock investments, while meaningfully engaging local communities to craft an overwhelmingly positive story for Africa and the climate.”

Jonas Monberg, CEO of the Green Hydrogen Organisation (part of the Secretariat for the Alliance) said the report provides an insight into the potential of harnessing the sun and wind in six African countries to build green hydrogen economies, producing fertilisers and steel, exporting energy and having more of it at home.

He said, “For the climate and for the development of these countries, we should urgently mobilise the USD 450-900 billion it will cost to realise this potential.”

Wale Shonibare, Director for Energy Financial Solutions, Policy and Regulation, the African Development Bank said green hydrogen offers Africa the opportunity to play a key role in driving the world’s transition to net-zero emissions. Working with AGHA countries the African Development Bank is mobilising technical assistance and financing to bring transformative green hydrogen and ammonia projects to fruition to serve domestic and export markets.

Eric Mwangi, Economic Advisor to the Cabinet Minister, Ministry of Energy of Kenya said President Dr. William Ruto announced a partnership with FFI to develop 300MW of green ammonia this week, and this is “just the beginning”.

“We can play a leading role in addressing climate change, while also safeguarding food and energy security for all Kenyans,” he said.

Frans Kalenga, Technical Advisor to the Minister of Mines and Energy of Namibia, said it is perfectly positioned to produce low cost green hydrogen and ammonia for domestic and international markets, and the AGHA provides a platform to collaborate with neighbouring countries.

Masopha Moshoeshoe, Green Economy Specialist in the Investment and Infrastructure Office in the Presidency of South Africa, said given the significant economic and social impacts of the nascent green hydrogen sector, it has been identified in the draft South African Country Investment Strategy as one of the ‘Big 5 frontiers’ for investment attraction, and serve as a ‘vector for reindustrialisation’.

Lehbib khroumbaly, Advisor of Mauritania minister of Petroleum Mines and Energy, said it is endowed with world-class wind and solar resources, wide space and strategic geographical position which allows it to produce competitive green hydrogen for international markets but also for the local market especially for transforming its iron ore industry.