According to its latest research, the UK could produce all of the hydrogen needed to fire peaking plants by 2035 by using renewable and nuclear electricity, where 8TWh of renewable generation would be curtailed, under the researcher’s base case.
By Aurora’s estimations, electrolysers would need 13TWh of input electricity to produce the amount of hydrogen needed to fire peaking plants instead of gas. Under its base case, curtailment falls 5TWh short.
However, by installing an additional 7.5% of renewable and nuclear capacity by 20305, relative to the 8TWh base case, the UK could enable enough curtailed generation to meet peak plant hydrogen demand.
Aurora has calculated that replacing gas-fired plants with hydrogen-fired alternatives by 2035 would cost £21bn ($24bn), including the costs for the required renewable and nuclear additions, as well as the installation of 10TWh of interseasonal hydrogen storage.
The £21bn price tag is up to 82% lower than the cost of relying on batteries to offset solar and wind variability, the organisation has said, which estimated that replacing gas-fire peaking plants with two-hour batteries would cost £112bn ($128bn) or £82bn (£93.8bn) for four-hour batteries.
Additionally, it predicted that new-build gas plants with carbon capture and storage (CCS), replacing unabated plants would be more competitive, at a cost of £22bn ($25bn).
Furthering the case for hydrogen, Aurora has said that hydrogen-fired plants would be cheaper to run than abated gas plants. It said, “The levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) generated by a hydrogen-fired power plant commissioned in 2030, operating at 10% of its total generation capacity, would be up to £47/MWh—or 20%—lower than the LCOE for an abated gas plant commissioned in 2030, operating at the same load factor.
“The spread between LCOEs for hydrogen and abated gas plants widens as load factors fall, climbing to £400/MWh—or 53%—at 2.5% load factors.”
The latest research follows on shortly from Aurora’s latest Hydrogen Market Attractiveness Report which said that global hydrogen electrolyser projects in development had grown to 957GW, although only 11% having advanced beyond early planning.
Read more: Global hydrogen electrolyser projects in development grow to 957GW, says Aurora Energy Research
Commenting on the potential of hydrogen in the UK’s power system, Anise Ganbold, Head of Research, Hydrogen, at Aurora Energy Research, said, “With more and more solar and wind generation in the power mix, the grid will need sources of dispatchable power to meet demand. We compared the cost of using hydrogen-fired peaking power plants with new abated gas plants and found the former to be more economic, both on an LCOE basis and total capex spend.”