Analysts forecast China will produce 33.4 million metric tonnes (MMT) of zero-emission electrolytic hydrogen by 2050, compared with 4.7 MMT in the US and 20 MMT in the European Union; this represents a sharp jump in last year’s forecast which projected China would produce 11.2 MMT of green hydrogen by mid-century.

The analysts’ base case forecast, published annually, reflects a dramatic surge in Chinese electrolyser development over the past year.

Envision recently commissioned the ‘world’s largest’ green hydrogen and ammonia plant in Chifeng, China, powered entirely by an off-grid renewable energy system.

“While there have been recent policy delays from Europe and setbacks from the US, China has quickly become the driving force for the electrolysis market,” said Sam Ernest, Senior Analyst for hydrogen and renewable gas.

Since the last report, China’s green hydrogen production capacity has grown to 2GW, or 70% of global electrolyser installations.

Chinese electrolyser manufacturers have also been signing contracts with green hydrogen projects and organisations in Europe, the Middle East, Brazil, Namibia and the US.

Short-to-medium-term omens also look favourable for China after Congress shortened the deadline to claim Section 45V hydrogen production tax credits by five years.

Green hydrogen developers must start construction before 2028 to be eligible for the subsidy, while the Trump administration has also delayed loans for clean hydrogen projects and cancelled grants.

S&P has cut its estimate for US electrolyser installations by more than 60% to about 2.5 GW by the end of the decade, though the US is still projected to lead in the production of hydrogen from fossil fuels with carbon capture technology.

Blue hydrogen developers can choose between the Section 45V and Section 45Q credit.