Westwood noted that while sanctioned capacity is rising, 71% of developers have only one sanctioned project, often dependent on exceptional public and EU subsidies, such as Stegra’s €6.5bn ($7.6bn) green steel plant in Sweden.
Instead, the “disciplined builders” and “strategic performers” are establishing themselves as the continent’s hydrogen leaders, according to the analyst. These include companies focused on manageable, near-term projects that align with existing capabilities and deliver tangible results.
Westwood highlighted Equinor for its “unique focused approach,” narrowing to three CCS-enabled projects and building an expected 1.8GW of capacity within a 3GW pipeline.
Renato PtX, Hynamics and Plug Power are also advancing smaller projects anchored by industrial offtake.
Renato PtX’s 1.3GW Project Catalina is entirely “probable” and backed by Fertiberia, while Lhyfe, with 23 projects and a 1.6GW pipeline, is scaling from 5–10MW plants towards its planned 300MW Torpshammar site in Sweden.
“The challenge is not about building an ambitious pipeline,” Westwood said. “Instead, a ‘disciplined builder’ approach demonstrates that a project can be delivered under current market constraints.”
The consultancy pointed to NortH2’s 9GW pipeline, EET Hydrogen’s 3.5–4GW plan, and Hive Energy’s 2.2GW project as examples of mega-projects slowed by long lead times and uncertain demand.
Diversified players such as Uniper, RWE and Air Liquide have spread resources across 10+ projects each, but few have reached maturity or secured the offtake required to progress.
Others have scaled back, too. BP has cancelled 18 early-stage projects, now aiming for 5–10 FIDs by 2030 with a focus on CCS hubs like H2Teeside, while Statkraft has pushed its 2GW electrolyser target to 2035 and paused new investment.
“Those that have a large pipeline are often overstretched geographically or stuck in the complexity of large-scale project delivery in today’s market environment,” Westwood added.
“While large-scale strategic ambition will be essential in the long-term, current dynamics are more favourable towards smaller-scale, de-risked solutions.”