Based on German modelling, the analysis revealed that hydrogen imports from Australia, Chile, and Morocco would be price competitive compared to domestic renewable hydrogen production by the end of the decade.

According to Aurora, the levelised cost of producing renewable hydrogen at feasible locations in Germany in 2030 ranges between €3.90-€5/kg ($4.24-$5.44/kg), when taking into account varying solar and onshore wind output across the nation, and only considering electrolytically produced hydrogen, connected directly to renewable assets.

The analytics company has said that the EU could feasibly import hydrogen from Australia, Chile, Morocco, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) by 2030, all of which have high renewable energy power generation potential and existing developer interest in hydrogen export projects.

H2 View understands Aurora estimated that the levelised cost of hydrogen production at a representative location in each of the countries in 2030 falls below Germany’s projected cost range, totalling €3.1/kg ($3.37) in Australia and Chile, €3.2kg/kg ($3.48) in Morocco, and €3.6/kg ($3.92) in the UAE.

Despite additional transport and conditioning costs, imports remain competitive, said Aurora. The analysis found that importing hydrogen by ship as liquid hydrogen to Germany from Morocco in 2030 would amount to €4.58/kg ($4.98).

Across the same route, also by ship, Aurora estimates that using liquid organic hydrogen carriers (LOHC) would cost €4.68/kg ($5.09), while transporting hydrogen as ammonia, including re-conditioning costs would total €4.72/kg ($5.13).

Furthermore, the research concluded that imports from Australia and Chile would only be competitive if hydrogen was transported as ammonia, costing €4.84/kg ($5.26) and €4.86/kg ($5.29) respectively. However, Aurora has said that UAE imports would not be competitive, with the cheapest method of importing ammonia estimated to cost €5.36/kg ($5.83).

The new data backs up findings from the Hydrogen Council’s Global Hydrogen Flows report which estimated that by 2030, Europe would be a region that consumes more hydrogen than it produces.

Read more: Regional hydrogen supply and demand mismatch will force global trade links by 2050, report predicts

“The global momentum behind the hydrogen industry shows no sign of slowing in 2023 – export project announcements are coming thick and fast,” said Anise Ganbold, Head of Research, Hydrogen at Aurora Energy Research.

Ganbold added, “Our analysis provides a fact check to this and finds that importing hydrogen into Europe even over long distances makes economic sense given the much lower cost of renewable energy in markets such as Morocco and Australia.”

The Aurora modelling has shown that pipelines would provide the cheapest option for renewable hydrogen imports from Morocco to Germany, totalling €3.72/kg ($4.04), however notes that the EU is not on track to have an operation hydrogen pipeline network to deliver supplies from Morocco by 2030, adding that accelerated pipeline development could reduce import costs by 20% compared to transporting hydrogen by ship.

Under its REPowerEU plan, the EU is looking to domestically produce 10 million tonnes of renewable hydrogen and import a further 10 million tonnes by 2030.

Read more: REPowerEU: €34-49bn needed for hydrogen infrastructure

Aurora estimates to meet its domestic production targets, the bloc would need a total electrolyser capacity of 75GW, which it says would not be evenly spread across the continent, focusing on regions with more favourable geographic conditions for generating renewable power.

It added that imports to Germany from Spain would be an economically attractive option, estimating that if imported via pipeline, hydrogen could cost €3.46/kg ($3.76) in 2030. It was revealed last week (January 22) that Germany had joined the H2Med pipeline project, connecting the country to potential production centres in Spain and Portugal.

Read more: Germany joins H2Med under new Franco-German hydrogen commitments

If pipeline deliveries are not available by 2030, the analysis found that imports via ship would remain economically attractive, with liquid hydrogen costing €4.35/kg ($4.73), and LOHC and ammonia imports coming in at €4.57/kg ($4.97) and €4.56/kg ($4.96) respectively.

Dilara Caglayan, Senior Associate, Hydrogen at Aurora Energy Research, commented, “Hydrogen is going to be a global commodity. Once the infrastructure is available, pipelines will unleash the cheapest hydrogen import routes to Europe. However, even imports by ship – more expensive than pipelines – will be economically competitive with domestic production.”